China v. US - Steel Cage Match for the Heavyweight Title

The balance of power throughout civilized society acts similar to a pendulum, always moving back and forth. Whether it is the Greek or Roman Empire’s commanding vast land expanses whilst being the preeminent world power, or the bipolar world that existed during the Cold War, the balance of power is constantly shifting. However, unlike the past where separate dominant civilizations could coexist with little to no interaction, (East Asian dynasties and their contemporary counterparts in western civilization), globalization has made that impossible. Currently, as the first decade of the 21^st century comes to its twilight, the pendulum of power is swinging from the current unipolar world with the United States as the primary protagonist to a bipolar world where China will be as influential as the United States. The most challenging task facing the world’s leaders will be how to make the transition as seamless as possible.

The current level of global interdependency in economic markets allows for proper utilization of resources through specialization, resulting in cheaper goods globally, but also makes for delicate political situations. With the United States’ current ratio of imports to exports with China well above 1, and both private Chinese and the Chinese government buying American debt, the United States is dangerously close to being in the Chinese’ proverbially pocket. There are several options to alter the current situation so that the United States’ can level the economic disparity that currently exists. First, the American government could put tariffs and quotas in effect to limit the amount of Chinese goods that enter the United States. If this is the route that is taken, the global political ramifications could be disastrous. Due to globalization, this shift in policy would affect not only the United States and China but also all international trading partners with the two nations. Following the implementation of the tariffs and quotas, the Chinese would more than likely implement similar policies, thus driving up the cost of goods between the two nations and consequently with the entire global economic community. The economic interactions between the two nations are not the only facet of interaction that would suffer, as political tensions between the two nations would escalate exponentially. With deliberate attempts by both nations to undermine the other’s economy, other joint political endeavors would become increasingly less likely. For instance, a joint military operation into North Korea to prevent nuclear proliferation would be much more difficult to organize. Foreign aid to crisis zones or simply to impoverished areas would likely not come from both nations to the same location simply on principle.

While the aforementioned option of dealing with the widening trade deficit is clearly not ideal, it may be the only way to ensure that the status quo of a unipolar world is held on to for as long as possible. Eventually, the world will return to the bipolar world of the Cold War, and how that transition is made by world leaders, the United States and China in particular, will ultimately be the greatest challenge that the 21^st century will offer on a global political and economic scale.